The Debate on Global Warming

Throughout the last decade, the debate has moved beyond the question of the existence of global warming to understanding the nature, extent, and predictability of these dynamic global climate changes that we are now experiencing first hand. Although considerable attention and resources have been dedicated to advocates of the greenhouse gasses theory, particularly those adherents who tend to emphasize man's contribution to increased atmospheric CO2, many fundamental questions about global warming remain unanswered. For example:

  • To what extent is the earth warming?
  • In addition to man's possible contribution, have we accounted for all of the possible drivers behind climate change? (i.e., natural variability caused by earth generated greenhouse gasses, hydrothermal heating, volcanic eruptions, seismic activity, and other natural geophysical/solar events)
  • What will be the long-term impact of global warming for life on Earth?
  • Do our climate prediction models represent real temperature trends? If not, why?

NCC has identified two main camps within the global warming debate:

  1. Those who believe the current global warming we are experiencing is natural:
    The Debate on Global Warming-Natural Variability
  2. Those who believe it is caused by human activities:
    The Debate on Global Warming-Human Causation

These are links to articles of interest within each side of the debate. The purpose is to present scientifically grounded arguments in support of each camp in order to help you determine the relative merits and future direction of this ongoing debate. The opinions reflected in these articles of interest are not necessarily representative of NCC's views.

AN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE DEBATE - AN OCEAN ORIENTATION

Are Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases or Natural Geophysical Forcings the Cause of Climate Change? – The Real Story Behind Global Warming:

Abstract: The oceans are naturally large heat or cooling sinks and would be logically be a most critical factor in planetary warming or cooling. They unquestionably would have the capacity to dwarf the atmosphere affects in terms of either warming or cooling the planet. See for example Atlantic SST Anomaly Animation 1996 to 2009.

As the controversy over man’s contribution to global warming continues, prominent scientists and scientific organizations claim it is man, himself, who is warming the oceans.

    “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in the Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are in fact rising.” NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENTISTS (Special White House Report 2001)
    "I believe our (ocean warming) results represent the strongest evidence to date that the Earth's climate system is responding to human-induced forcing." DR. SYDNEY LEVITUS (Chief Ocean Scientist, NOAA) (See, Anthropogenic Warming of Earth's Climate System)
    “Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations since the mid-1700s have apparently warmed the surface of the Earth.” NOAA

The current anthropogenic hypothesis is that the mechanism involved in energy transfer to the oceans is via greenhouse gas trappings of infrared radiation contained in the lower atmosphere (NAS, et al.). It is believed this atmospheric heat is initially absorbed by the ocean surface and then transferred to the deep ocean. This ocean absorption is generally within the tropical regions and is claimed somehow concentrated in the western Pacific where large SST anomalies are formed during the onset of El Nino.

This atmospheric heat is then redistributed during the pressure drop of the Southern Oscillation, which weakens the trade winds allowing the warm water to migrate with ocean currents across basin to the eastern Pacific with associated planetary Kelvin waves. Under the anthropogenic hypothesis, this forms a new pattern of SST’s in the eastern Pacific associated with the full-blown El Nino. It is believed during this cycle some heat is sequestered in the deep ocean bottom waters by an equator to pole transport where warm water enters the deep ocean via thermohaline circulation process (Levitus et. al). Dr. Levitus at NOAA and other prominent researchers believe that ocean warming including deep ocean warming (as has been observed due to increases in Anthropogenic GHG’s. [3]

On the other hand, Robert Stevenson, a respected oceanographer who is from the natural variability school, suggests there are several physical problems associated with the Anthropogenic hypothesis of atmospheric infrared heat absorption by the oceans - not the least of which is how atmospheric heat can be absorbed by the ocean, much less into the deep ocean. See Yes, the Ocean Has Warmed; No, It’s Not ‘Global Warming’

Stevenson’s disagreement with the Levitus et. al. essentially hinges on:

  1. Infrared energies long wavelengths make them susceptible to immediate absorption by water molecules in the upper few millimeters of the water column, precluding infrared heating at depth. This heats water quickly to evaporation temperatures providing a cooling effect, which transfers heat to potential energy in rising water molecules in the atmosphere. This energy may be stored in cloud cover and ground water or converted to faster atmospheric circulation patterns and increasing wind damage on continental land masses and other transport mechanisms such as increased precipitation and erosion on land and dust transport, all carried to ocean sediment layers noted in the geologic record.
  2. The variation in seawater density is primarily a function of temperature, thus only very cold and/or salty surface seawater is able to sink and deep water cannot warm as a function of surface temperatures which are balanced by heat loss to the atmosphere not the deep water. The theory is that heat rises. Thus, there does not appear to be a satisfactory explanation from those in the Anthropogenic school as to how atmospheric heat (derived from GHG’s), if any, can be absorbed by the oceans, much less into the deep oceans.

It would naturally seem that ocean warming and cooling, and its causes should be the subject of critical investigation to determine whether anthropogenic greenhouse gases or if a natural driver (or group of natural drivers) is the cause of climate change.

Those in the natural variability school believe the vast quantities of oceanic heat currently being observed is being derived directly from seafloor releases from the thin oceanic crust. They point to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies typically associated with El Nino. It appears they have found clear evidence that the ocean heat may be derived directly from the earth’s mantle in the form of episodic hydrothermal venting. Undisputed historical evidence shows that concurrent with and after El Nino (warming) or La Nina (cooling) events that global atmospheric temperatures tend to correspondingly warm or cool.

This has pointed scientists to look at the heat sink/capturing and heat shedding capacity/capability of the oceans - as being the driver of global climate change. [4] It is also appears more likely the oceans act as a buffering agent against extreme swings in the natural variation of an earth based global warming/cooling.

A wealth of new evidence confirms the existence of a natural driver of global climate change. Examples include:

  • volcanic activity occurring under the active melt regions of Antarctica (Orr, Leybourne 2001);
  • inner core jerks occurring at start of the Great Pacific Climate Change of the early 1970s (Orr, Leybourne 2001, Sohn et. al., 2008);
  • seismic links to El Nino established in the late 1980s (Walker, 1988, 1995, Orr, Leybourne 2001)
  • CO2 lagging the heat peaks in ice core data by over 600 - 800 years historically (Broecker, Wallace S., and Thomas F. Stocker, 2006) and CO2 lagging six to eight years present day (Quinn 2009); [Link P 27 Comments]
  • known climatic correlations exist with solar/sun spot activity and orbital parameters (exluding solar light [irradiative] intensity variations), see for example, Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, ARTHUR B. ROBINSON, NOAH E. ROBINSON, AND WILLIE SOON, Oregon Institute Of Science And Medicine, 2007 [5]
  • observed CO2 liquid bubbles the size of basketballs ascending from deep ocean trenches simultaneously to El Nino events [cite(s) to follow];
  • earthquake swarms on the Mediterranean seafloor correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and ocean circulation reversals during the 2003 European heat wave which caused over a thousand deaths (Leybourne, Orr 2003);
  • earthquake swarms Nov. 2002 in the Gulf of Alaska preceding huge snow melts causing the Iditarod dog sled race to move further north in 2003 (Orr, Leybourne 2003);
  • melting of the Artic ice cap directly over the underlying mid-ocean ridge warming confirmed by deep ocean profiles (Orr, Leybourne 2002, 2003);
  • SST anomalies reflecting the underlying ridge configurations in the eastern Pacific and the Guaymas basin rift during 1998 El Nino (Orr, Leybourne 2002, 2003);
  • deep double layered thermoclines associated with warm sterile (hydrothermal) waters off the coast of Peru found in deep ocean profiles during the 1982 El Nino [cite(s) to follow];
  • simultaneous worldwide squid and marine mammal deaths and beachings during apparent El Nino associated hydrothermal venting (Orr, Leybourne 2002, 2003)
These are just a few climatic examples overlooked by GHG advocates. [6]

As noted above, collaborating evidence cited by the second school (advocating natural variability) is the Antarctic Ice Core data, which shows a remarkable correlation to the Milankovich planetary (earth/sun) orbital cycle with a radical temperature periodicity of +/- 80,000 to 100,000 years (Fig 2). Note the radical temperature increase of the last 5,000 - 10,000 years of the cycle (Fig 2 and 3), when planetary orbit is most circular.

Fig. 2. 420,000 Year Temperature and CO2 Comparison Obtained From 3,623 Meters of Ice Core Bored In Vostok, Antarctica--Result Of A 10-Year Collaboration Between Russia, France and The United States

Ice core data indicates a 600-800 year lag in greenhouse gas peaks after temperature peaks (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3. Evidence of CO2 time lag to changes in temperature. The solid curve indicates the Dome C δD in the ice as a proxy for local temperature (23). Solid circles represent COR2R data from Dome C (mean of 6 samples; error bars, 1σ of the mean). Diamonds show methane data from Dome C (the 1σ uncertainty is 10 ppbv). The time scale used for the gas-ice age is from work by Schwander et al. (18) (the depth at the top of the figure is only valid for the COR2R and methane records). In the COR2R and methane records, four intervals (I through IV) can be distinguished during the transition. The δD record is highly correlated with the COR2R record, with the exception that the increased rates during intervals I and II are not significantly different in the deuterium record. The YD and the B/A events recorded in Greenland ice cores are indicated by shaded bars according to the GRIP time scale. Comparisons of the methane record with that of GRIP demonstrate that the YD corresponds to interval IV and the B/A event corresponds to interval III.

This clearly reveals that increased atmospheric greenhouse gases are a natural resultant product of climate change. Under present time scales, greenhouse gases (all sources, natural and anthropogenic) still lag by about 8 years anomalous heat events [Link to p 29 Comments]. Thus, GHG’s cannot be contributory since in all they lag anomalous warming. Mounting evidence suggests a hydro/geothermal venting link as being the root of both past and recent global warming events.

If so, is this last 10,000 years and the most recent 100 year temperature warming been linked to a buffered warming affect of the oceans due to episodic hydrothermal venting/sea floor volcanic activity?

Observational evidence, including historic evidence and a recent analysis of ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies (Fig. 1, 4 and 7) associated with El Nino in the Eastern Pacific, tend to lead to the conclusion that SST heat is actually shed from the oceans into the atmosphere during El Nino’s, not absorbed by it. Thus, is hydrothermal venting and seafloor volcanism the source of the ocean heat?

Fig. 4. Peak SST Anomalies of 97/98 El Nino (Tectonics Inset Fig. 1).

Fig. 5. Tectonic fabric outlined from seafloor structure map. (Fig. 4 - 6.)

Fig. 6. Galapagos/Guaymas Hot Spots (Red) and Highlighted Ridge Structures.

Could this evidence support the existence of an independent ocean based driver– a hydrothermal/seafloor volcanic driver, which in turn is driven by a lithospheric jouled heating event (Gregori, G.P. 2002 [7])?

Is this driver the apparent cause of SST anomalies, which were associated with El Nino (see Figs. 1, 4 and 7)? Note, the 1997/1998 SST anomalies appear to directly overlie massive tectonic systems (trenches and ridges Fig. 4 - 6) that may be capable of producing high volumes of episodic hydro/geothermal venting.

Note, two ridges extend from the Galapagos Islands (Fig. 4 -6). One is the Cocos Ridge, which extends to the north and intersects the Central American Coast near the border of Costa Rica and Panama. The other is to the south, known as the Carnegie Ridge, which extends eastward to the South American coast of near Ecuador. Deep trenches also exist along the South American and Mexican coasts. In the SST anomaly patterns of 1998 (Fig. 1, 4 and 7), it is especially noticeable that a bifurcated SST anomaly pattern exists directly over the ridges. Is the SST anomaly pattern overlying these tectonic trends a result of heat emissions from seafloor via volcanic extrusions and associated hydrothermal venting?

Increased seismic activity along the East Pacific Rise (EPR, Walker, 1988, 1995) and Juan de Fuca (Johnson et, al., 2001) ridges is known to precede increases in hydrothermal venting rates and corresponding SST temperature anomalies.

Increases in seismicity along the EPR (Walker, 1999) have also been documented to signal an approaching El Nino up to six months or more in advance. The SST in Fig. 1 and 4 occurred during January 1998 at the peak of the 97/98 El Nino event. In addition, the unique conditions, which prevail in this area, make it the ideal place to study this affect. The ridges in this area are shallower compared to the EPR and Juan de Fuca where bottom currents tend to redistribute heat from the ridge in unpredictable patterns without a viable bottom circulation model. Within this area westerly trade wind patterns associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone induce coastal upwelling driving heat from the trench/ridge system westward as it rises from the bottom.

The Galapagos rift just north of the Galapagos Islands is a well-studied mantle plume or hotspot within the region of hydrothermal vent systems. Another hotspot of focus within the region is near geothermal sources of the Guaymas Basin Rift, which are linked to SST anomalies off the trenches of Baja (Fig. 1, 4 and 7).

Fig. 7. SST Anomalies in Black Bathymetry Drape. Note: Cedros Trench SST Anomaly Offshore Baja.

Evidence is found that appears to also link corresponding SST anomalies over the Cedros Trench (Fig. 7) and to seamount sources off the Baja coast.

Apparent episodic hydrothermal venting events appear directly correlated to precedent changes in inner core rotation speeds, magnetic pulses/decay, core-mantle boundary interruptions (e.g. geomagnetic jerks). The “Great Pacific Climate Shift” in the mid-1970’s and the subsequent El Nino events, begin to tell the larger story of an Earth based approach to understanding climate change. For example, the geomagnetic jerk of 1969/1970 (Dziewonski, 1993, Mandea et al. 2000) preceded a world ocean warming period, which saw from1970 to 1977 (see Fig. 7a) an ocean temperature increase of almost 0.2o C world wide. This 1969/70 geomagnetic jerk preceded the 1972 El Nino. The 1982 Jerk (R. Holme and O. de Viron, 2005) preceded the 1983 El Nino and another period of extended ocean warming.

Fig. 7a. The 1969/70 and 1982 Geomagnetic jerks precede El Nino and World Ocean temperature increases.

It appears in almost every case that a geomagnetic jerk occurs either prior to or concurrently with an increase in ocean temperatures. Elevated periodic seismicity also appears associated with said geo-magnetic jerks. [Link to Webpage 3]

Precedent Geo-Magnetic Jerks, Earthquakes, Episodic Hydrothermal Venting/Ocean Warming:

Prior to or co-current with episodic hydrothermal venting precedent geomagnetic jerks are observed. The correlation between the rate of change in the Earth’s rotation rate or Length of Day (LOD) ΔT, and changes in the Earth’s magnetic field Declination (D) has been well known for many decades (Lambeck, 1980). More recently, a correlation between changes in these two parameters and Earth’s mean-temperature change θ has also been determined. The fact that the magnetic parameter changes direction first, suggests that the cause of these changes lies within the Earth’s outer core since it is in this region of the Earth that the magnetic field is produced. It is also known that the Earth’s magnetic field, as seen at the Earth’s surface, is generated by the motion of electrically conducting fluids located in a thin layer just beneath the Core-Mantle-Boundary (CMB). This fluid is highly electrically conducting, in contrast to the mantle, which is several orders of magnitude less conductive. So, there exists, a priori, a differential conductivity of significant proportions at the CMB. Such a differential conductivity in the presences of an electrically conducting fluid, the motion of which is changing rapidly, will generate a Lorenz force and a related torque at the site of conductivity discontinuity.

The Core consists of a constantly moving fluid that is constantly being acted upon by many forces (e.g., Coriolis, Gravity, etc.). Since the magnetic field is generated by the interaction of the conducting fluid moving in the presence of the pre-existing magnetic field via, an induction processes, it has been suggested that Jerks are generated by sudden instabilities in this fluid. (Bellanger et al., 2001). That is, a sudden radial instability is presumed to occur in upper layer of conducting fluid. This sudden instability may, for instance, be caused by local temperature anomalies at the CMB, which cause colder fluids to suddenly sink towards the Inner-Core-Boundary (ICB). Due to the sudden redistribution of mass, this in turn can cause sudden changes in the Earth’s angular momentum directly, as well as indirectly through the resulting sudden electromagnetic torques generated at the CMB via induction between the core and the mantle. Sudden changes in fluid motion acting on the CMB’s differential conductivity generate a Lorentz force and a subsequent sudden torque. This process is referred to as electromagnetic Core-Mantle-Coupling (Whaler, 1983).

This torque will then suddenly change (accelerate or decelerate) the Earth’s rotation rate, thereby, generating a differential rotation between the mantle and core. Similarly, friction caused by changes in fluid motion at a rough CMB can also cause some additional torquing at the CMB. Regardless of the torquing mechanism, the angular momentum of the viscous fluids within the mantle, as well as oceanic, atmospheric, and groundwater fluids would be affected. This should subsequently lead to increased volcanism and seismicity. Eventually, the some of the energy generated by the torquing mechanism is converted to heat that is transferred to the oceans and eventually the atmosphere. This connection between Geomagnetic Jerks and Earth angular momentum is characterized by changes in Chandler Wobble phase (i.e., phase jumps), which have occurred nine times during the past century (Danjon and Guinot, 1954; Guinot, 1972; Gibert et al, 1998) and have been correlated to Geomagnetic Jerks (Gibert et al., 1998). Subsequently, there must also be feed-back mechanisms, whereby, changes in the motion (i.e., angular momentum) of the atmosphere, oceans, etc. will cause additional torquing both at the Earth’s surface as well as at the CMB. The net effect at Earth’s surface is a Global Climate Change driven via episodic hydrothermal venting by Core fluid instabilities.

Surface volcanism at Vanuatu following geomagnetic jerks shows an interesting correlation to El Nino (Fig 8).

Fig. 8. Volcanic evidence suggests a one to one correlation between ocean warming and episodic hydrothermal venting.

Helium seawater profile data obtained during the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) show high concentrations of Helium3 over trenches off the Mexican coast indicating increased hydrothermal venting activity within the trenches (Fig. 9). This particular profile from Pacific Marine Environmental Labs (PMEL) shows the largest anomalies directly over the trenches of the Mid-American Trench. The Galapagos rift just north of the Galapagos Islands has been a subject of study for nearly three decades by several groups (WHOI, PMEL, and RIDGE). This is the site of a documented mantle plume and there were several ongoing integrated site studies on hydrothermal vent systems.

Fig. 9. Helium Data Anomalies Above the Central America Trench

In addition, high Helium isotope He3m concentrations (He3 is considered to be only from mantle sources) over key tectonic features, especially in the trenches, indicate concentrated hydro/geothermal activity (Fig. 9).

Fig. 10. Jan97 – Dec98 = 1845 Total EQ’s (NEIC).

Seismic data supports a precedent tectonic link to episodic hydrothermal venting/climate climate change. SST patterns correlates to increasing earthquake activity in the region (Fig. 10 and 11). This indicates seismic activity monitored by land-based instruments from the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) peaks the month after a peak in SST patterns during the 97/98 El Nino event (Fig.1, 4 and 7). Land based seismic instrumentation does not pick up micro-seismicity on the Ridges (< 4 magnitudes), but it can be monitored by hydrophone arrays, which pick up T-phase seismicity in ocean wave-guides. PMEL has this system in place west of the Galapagos region (Fig. 10 and 11). Data published by Daniel Walker indicates a T-phase seismicity precursor to El Nino roughly six months before the pressure drop of the Southern Oscillation, which occurs for the last 7 El Nino’s since 1965. Prevailing oceanographic conditions near Galapagos allow heat to rise more directly from vent systems below. The westward drift of the inter-tropical convergence zone is weakened during peak El Nino conditions due to a pressure drop of the Southern Oscillation. This in effect weakens the wind stress and general circulation of upwelling bottom waters in the coastal regions. Warm water from hydrothermal venting migrates upward and is expressed at the surface as large SST anomalies approximately near the venting source (Fig.1, 4 and 7).

Fig. 11. Monthly Histogram of EQ’s in Fig. 10 (NEIC).

A similar phenomenon has been previously documented in the Juan de Fuca region. Four days after micro-seismic swarms within the ridge segments are monitored, increases in venting rates by a factor of 10 and increased temperatures over 10 degrees “normal” temperatures are documented. These conditions may persist for 2 months or more before venting rates and temperatures return to “normal”.

World earthquake activity (Fig. 12) has increased fourfold in the last three decades indicating increased activity within the earth for the same period of increased El Nino frequencies and latest episode of global warming.

Fig. 12. World Earthquake Activity 1974 to 1998.

Another clue appears to be the extreme melting of Antarctic and Greenland ice-shelves, which occurs near known volcanic systems and thus probable hydro/geothermal sources (Fig. 12a and 12b). “Scientists have discovered what they think may be another reason why Greenland’s ice is melting: a thin spot in Earth's crust is enabling underground magma to heat the ice.” [8]

Fig. 12a. Arctic Ice Melt 8-9-07

Fig. 12b Gakkel Ridge and Arctic Ice Melt 8-9-07 (Fig. 12a)

CASE STUDIES OF EPISODIC HYDROTHERMAL VENTING AS AN APPARENT DRIVER OF CLIMATE CHANGE [9]

Three compelling case studies (Case 1-3) of the Pacific Basin within the 1996-2003 interval and one (Case 4) within the Mediterranean are presented below.

Pacific Basin - Case 1: The 6-8 month lag-times of SST to precedent seismic events in the Pacific are likely related to thermal energy transmigrations (Blot, 1976, 2003) from the base of the lithosphere at 33km depths. These shallow (base of the lithosphere) clustered earthquakes found in National Earthquake Information Center [1] (NEIC) data sets are compared to National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) SST satellite anomaly data [2].

Apparent dual thermal plumes above the Peru Trench off the coast of South America in June 1997 signaled the beginning of the 1997/98 El Nino, and are correlated to earthquakes 7 months prior in the trench on 15 Nov. 96 (Fig. 13).

Fig. 13. (a). Two distinct clusters of earthquakes off the Coast of South America in Nov. 96 are apparent. (b). SST’s seem to emanate in a similar pattern to the earthquake paired clusters. The northern SST anomaly is on the continental shelf as is the northern earthquake cluster, while the southern SST anomaly is further offshore over the continental slope as is the southern earthquake cluster. These SST anomalies appeared (June 1997) just north of earthquake positions possibly due to prevailing long shore currents, about 7 months after the paired earthquake clusters. (c). Chart indicates earthquakes/day (Frequency); magnitudes are added for simple power indicator (Magnitude Add), along with an average (Magnitude Avg.) A spike in earthquake activity begins Nov. 12th and tapers off Nov. 14th revealing the intense episodic nature of these events. (d). SST Max. Anomaly/month indicating anomalies > 7° C by June 97 followed by a year of elevated SST anomalies associated with the 97/98 El Nino. (e). Joule energy released during (f). Earthquake events occurred in Nov. 96.

This period also marked the beginning of a 22 year Hale solar cycle indicating a probable solar coupling to these clustered earthquakes. The source of these dual plumes appear directly correlated to the dual seismic swarms or clusters (Figs. 13a and 13b). A northern cluster appears on the continental shelf environment, while the southern cluster appears on the slope. A large 7.7 magnitude quake was also observed, which is known to have triggered a small Tsunami in Hawaii (Walker, D.A., personal communication.). The southern cluster/swarm of quakes ranged in depth - 5000 to +1000m, which appears to have larger magnitude activity centered between -1000 to -600m in slope setting, while the other northern cluster ranges -4000 to +400 but most of the activity seems to be near the 200m continental shelf setting. The two SST anomalies appear associated with the two separate (dual) earthquake clusters. The northern SST’s appear over the shelf and larger, while the southern SST’s appear over the slope (Fig. 13b.).

North West Pacific - Case 2: Earthquake events in Dec. 97 in the NW Pacific also appear to have approximately 6-7 month lag times before corresponding SST anomalies (Fig. 14a) appear to emanate from the trenches adjacent to the earthquake cluster (Fig. 14a, inset). An interesting similarity between events in Peru and NW Pacific is that they occur at intersections of Pacific Rim Trenches and seamount trends (possible hotlines or conductive pathways). Earthquake events at the NW Pacific Trench (Fig. 14a, inset) location lie along seamount trends to Hawaii, a known hotspot. The Peru Trench location intersects Nazca Ridge trends from Easter Island, a rotating micro-plate along the Central Pacific Megatrend (CPM, Smoot and Leybourne, 2001). Hawaii and Easter Island are probable conductive pathways of postulated electrical circuits connected to the inner earth.

Fig. 14. (a). Blue arrow indicates earthquake insert position in SST anomaly image. (b). SST Max. Anomaly/month indicating an anomaly = 8° C by Aug. 98 which begins in June 7 months. (c). Earthquake events. (d) Joule energy release. The > 10° C anomaly in the summer of 2003 (b) appears more related to the Alaskan earthquake event 7 months prior in Nov 2002 (Fig. 15).

Gulf of Alaska – Case 3: November 2002 land based earthquakes in Alaska are associated with the largest strike-slip earthquake of the past 150 years in North America along the Denali Fault system. They appear to trigger a general warming in ocean waters to the west of Alaska within 8 months (See time series of NW Pacific temperature trends in Fig. 14b), postulated to correlate to thicker continental crust (in turn yielding longer heat transmigration times). It is also postulated that this phenomenon may also explain the subsequent intense warming on land and local snow melt causing the relocation of the Iditarod dog sled race north in 2003 and corresponds to the general increase in seismic energy with in the northern hemisphere.

Fig. 15. Alaskan earthquake event Nov. 2002 (View from NW toward Gulf of Alaska) hypothesized to cause relocation of the Iditarod dog sled race northward in 2003 correlating with intense warming > 10° C anomaly in ocean waters (Fig. 14b) westward

Mediterranean Heat Wave - Summer 2003 – Case 4: SST anomaly patterns lag earthquake clusters consistent with studies on thermal energy migration rates. Thermal transfer rates above 33km depths were determined at 0.15km/day (Blot, 1976, 2003). Thus heat transfers from 10 km depths in the Adriatic and Mediterranean regions (Fig. 16) take about 67 days or 2 months which is consistent with approximate timing of subsequent SST anomaly patterns. The timing of these events appears directly correlated to changes in Adriatic circulation and the anomalous heat wave in the 2003 European summer triggering hundreds of human deaths. Thermal energy from Adriatic earthquake events is hypothesized to have triggered a two week reversal of ocean circulation patterns in the Adriatic. The circulation changed from counterclockwise to clockwise, consistent with an anomalous burst of geothermal flow. These shallow (base of the lithosphere) clustered earthquakes found in National Earthquake Information Center1 (NEIC) data sets are compared to National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) SST satellite anomaly data2.

Fig. 16. Mediterranean SST Anomaly Map Indicating 2003 Summer Heat Wave. Adriatic Inset -Fig. 17. North African Inset -Fig. 18. Turkish Straits Inset –Fig. 19.

Clustered earthquake patterns at the base of the lithosphere/upper mantle concentrated mostly within the ocean basins, are followed by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies hypothesized to originate from underlying magma generation and seafloor heat release during hydrothermal venting.

Joule heating at the base of the lithosphere created from electrical emanations deep within the core-mantle-boundary manifest as clustered earthquakes could provide the driving mechanism for elevated temperatures. Clustered earthquake swarms at 10km depths, which burst pulse over short, several day to week periods appear correlated to subsequent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and a reversal in Adriatic Sea circulation. Authors suggest this and other like events may be drivers of global warming. Adriatic (Figs. 17), North African (Figs. 18, Algeria) and Turkish Strait (Figs. 19) earthquake events in 2003 had SST anomaly lag periods of months, weeks, to no lag period respectively. The differing time lags are likely related to thinner crust, shallower focus earthquakes (NEIC data indicate 10km depths), or lithosphere facture zone (North Anatolian Fault) connectivity to the surface as evident in the Turkish Strait event.

Fig. 17. Adriatic earthquakes and anomalous SST's May 2003. (b). SST Max. Anomaly/month indicating anomalies > 5° C lasting several months in 2003. (c). Following earthquake events beginning late 2002 and early 2003. (d). Coincident joule energy release.

Fig. 18 North African (Algerian) earthquakes and SST’s during June 2003. Note: Max SST Anomaly trend in white strikes northeast directly away from earthquake cluster. (b). SST Max. Anomaly/month indicating anomalies > 5° C lasting months in 2003. (c). Following earthquake events in May 2003. (d). Coincident joule energy release.

Fig. 19. Earthquakes to the west and simultaneous SST anomalies east and south of Turkish Straits along the North Anatolian Fault system. (b). SST Max. Anomaly/month indicating an anomaly > 9° C in July 2003 occurring simultaneously. (c) Earthquake events in July 2003. (d). Coincident joule energy release.

Each case above a precedent and/ or contemporaneous geomagnetic jerk and/or seismic activity was observed with apparent episodic hydrothermal venting resulting as a consequence of a Joule heating event.

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